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| #460808 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 21.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 41.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 41.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.0N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.2N 46.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.5N 49.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 41.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
