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| #460858 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 21.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011 ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. LATEST ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT RELENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH IS PART OF THE HFIP SUITE AND HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS YEAR...SHOWS A FASTER DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270/14. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO FOR OPHELIA REMAINS THE SAME. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS LIKELY AS OPHELIA...IF IT SURVIVES...NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS GUIDANCE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 13.0N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.3N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 14.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 14.7N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 19.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 21.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
