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| #461042 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 22.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 100SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.5N 51.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 30SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.7N 55.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
