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| #461091 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 22.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011 OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. FROM A DVORAK PERSPECTIVE...THE SYSTEM IS RATED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN SAYING OTHERWISE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. AS OPHELIA APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE STORM IS LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER. SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR. AFTERWARDS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR THE STORM WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND SOME OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS. IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO TRACK THE CENTER BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.6N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 22.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
