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| #461151 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 22.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OPHELIA...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY... HOWEVER IT IS STILL NOT VERY OBVIOUS. THE STORM IS QUITE DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ONLY SUPPORT A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD NOT WEAKENED...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AS OPHELIA NEARS THE SUBTROPICS...SO RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME...280/11...AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...AGAIN...SHIFTED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS STILL ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.5N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.7N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.1N 55.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 23.5N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 25.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
