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| #461392 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 23.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 100SE 90SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 55.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.6N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...225NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.8N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...225NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.0N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
