Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #461526 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 24.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011 OPHELIA HAS NOT CHANGED A LOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER STAYING MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THAT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF OPHELIA. GIVEN THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD FRACTURE AND ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHADED TOWARD THE STATISTICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NIGHT-VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING FOR A DAY OR SO...THE DIFFERENCES BECOME QUITE LARGE AFTER THAT TIME. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF SYSTEM IS WEAK...OPHELIA IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA IS DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AROUND 65W...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS MORE LIKELY WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...IT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO...AND RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.9N 55.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.0N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.2N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 24.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 26.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
