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| #461584 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 24.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 100SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 57.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.9N 59.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.9N 60.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.3N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
