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| #461644 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 24.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011 A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72 HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
