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| #461756 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 25.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 OPHELIA REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY...OPHELIA WOULD LACK THE NECESSARY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 20 KT...DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OPHELIA...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. IF OPHELIA SURVIVES BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD SINCE IT HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA WILL DEPEND ON ITS VERTICAL COHERENCY. MOST OF THE MODELS...WHICH SHOW OPHELIA AS A RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE...TURN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...KEEPS A SHALLOWER SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA...THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.1N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.7N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 21.4N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 22.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 27.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
