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| #46186 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 15.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART |
