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| #462282 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 27.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.6N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.7N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 24.5N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
