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| #462349 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 27.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
