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| #462514 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 28.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011 OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES HAVE GAINED SOME CURVATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH OPHELIA COULD BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/3. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OPHELIA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD MOVE OPHELIA AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TOUCH TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS... BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OPHELIA CROSSES A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ENCOUNTERS SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.6N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.2N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.4N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.8N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.4N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.7N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 34.0N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 43.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
