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| #462665 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 28.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PREVAILING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO THE STORM EARLIER TODAY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR AND AROUND THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR OPHELIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AGAIN CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE NEW GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONT... AND THEREFORE HAVING UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 330/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD TURN OPHELIA NORTHWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NEW GFS RUN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THEN THE 0600 UTC RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.2N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.6N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 23.3N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 31.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 40.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 52.0N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
