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| #462872 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 29.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS INDICATES THAT OPHELIA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STRENGTHENING... HOWEVER...PENDING VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING THE INTENSITY...IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA...SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW OPHELIA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE LOW END AND THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS AT THE HIGH END. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPHELIA BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION...330/6...IS ONLY A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS REMAIN IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OPHELIA SHOULD MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW OPHELIA WILL INTERACT WITH A HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.0N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.1N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 27.8N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 35.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 46.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 54.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
