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| #462928 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 29.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND NOW IT IS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. I EVEN SUSPECT THAT AN EYE FEATURE COULD BE FORMING. THE OUTFLOW IS TRYING TO EXPAND WESTWARD...BUT UPPER-LEVEL HOSTILE WINDS JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE DISRUPTING IT AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THAT BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BUT NOT HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT OPHELIA FROM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE DAY...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL LGEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96 HOURS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...AND I FACT...IT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON SO FAR. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS OPHELIA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE TRACK...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS CENTERED WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE...DOES NOT REACH BERMUDA. BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ONCE AGAIN THESE BUOYS ARE PROVING TO BE VERY VALUABLE IN TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.9N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 55.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
