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| #462934 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 29.Sep.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N 43.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...135NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 45.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 47.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
