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| #463021 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN AN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON. OPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL LGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE. BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY... AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96 HOURS OR SOONER. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY AND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 30.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 41.0N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z 53.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
