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| #463133 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 29.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED THIS EVENING. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING. A TIMELY 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS. WITH THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER. THIS FAVORS SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING AT TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...GIVING A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.2N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 24.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 24.8N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 25.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 25.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 25.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
