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| #463135 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 29.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 62.3W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 62.3W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 62.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N 63.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.8N 63.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 43.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 52.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN |
