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| #463192 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 30.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL- DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER... THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA. ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.9N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.9N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.9N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 24.9N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 25.0N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
