Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #463237 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 30.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 OPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE WAS ALREADY CLEARLY OBSERVED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT...AND THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING NEAR 5.5 WITH RAW NUMBERS RECENTLY REACHING 6.0. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON A SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC FORECAST SINCE IT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.5N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.2N 63.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 32.1N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 37.0N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
