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| #463309 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 30.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 OPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED A DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AND THERE IS A SALIENT THUNDERSTORM BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED WHILE THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN NEAR 5.9 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AVERAGE OF THESE TWO ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 100 KNOTS. SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE OPHELIA IS OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. THEREAFTER... THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGH SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.7N 63.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 63.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 29.8N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 34.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 48.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
