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| #463441 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 01.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE STORM IS NOT WEAKENING. IN FACT...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS NOW AS COLD AS -85C. A 0501 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...AND THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. HOWEVER... RECENT ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...THE SAME ONE THAT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF OPHELIA...ERODES THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF MODEL. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PHILIPPE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR VECTOR TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING. IF PHILIPPE IS ABLE TO SURVIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 24.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 25.7N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 26.4N 54.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 26.6N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 28.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 32.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
