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| #463467 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS STILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY CONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.5N 62.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 42.0N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 46.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 50.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
