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| #463468 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 PHILIPPE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONSEQUENTLY MAKE A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SMALLER CUT-OFF LOW AND LEAVES PHILIPPE IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THIS MAKES THE GFS A SLOWER...SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIRTY TO FORTY KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND THIS ENVIRONMENT. PHILIPPE WILL BY NO MEANS BE A HEALTHY-LOOKING CYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND REMAIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND INDICATES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN PHILIPPE ENTERS A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE...IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY MODELS DURING THAT PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 24.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.4N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.9N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 26.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 30.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
