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| #463472 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 01.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 OPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BECAUSE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE EAST OF BERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 31.6N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 40.0N 60.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 48.0N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 50.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
