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| #463474 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 01.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 ...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 62.6W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING AS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING THE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
