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| #463479 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 01.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5 THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 25.4N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 25.8N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 26.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 25.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 26.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 28.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
