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| #463508 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:11 AM 02.Oct.2011) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 61.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 61.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.9N 60.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.4N 56.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.9N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 50.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 56.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 400SE 400SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
