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| #463624 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 02.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/27 KT. OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AS WELL AS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 38.7N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 42.4N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 46.4N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 49.6N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
