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| #463626 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 02.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 60.9W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
