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| #463654 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 02.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 200 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 60.3W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
