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| #463691 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 02.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE HAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE COLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH- NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 41.6N 59.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 45.2N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 48.6N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0600Z 51.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1800Z 56.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
