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| #463692 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 02.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...CENTER OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 59.9W ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
