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| #463746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 02.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.9N 58.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44141 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSED ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF THE BUOY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
