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| #463749 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 02.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS TILT IS DUE TO THE 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE IN ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...LEANING TOWARD THE HIGH END OF A BLEND OF DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BY 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 025/29. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. OPHELIA WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTIONS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF OPHELIA NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...OPHELIA WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 43.9N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 46.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 49.8N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/1200Z 53.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
