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| #463807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 03.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT RACES TOWARD THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND.... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.5N 54.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
