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| #463833 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 AM 03.Oct.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 800 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 ...CENTER OF OPHELIA TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.1N 54.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE EARLIER POSITION. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
