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| #463851 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 03.Oct.2011) TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVING SITES ON THE AVALON PENINSULA... HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 48.1N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 04/0000Z 50.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
