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| #4640 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 13.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 ...HURRICANE CHARLEY CROSSING CUBA IN HURRY...EYE OVER WESTERN HAVANA...ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. KEY WEST AND CUBAN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST ABOUT 14 MILES...22 KM...WEST OF DOWNTOWN HAVANA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE EYE OF CHARLEY AROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. HAVANA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL. THE SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
