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#464335 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 05.Oct.2011)
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011

PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHILE AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65
KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
ABOUT 10 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6. PHILIPPE IS RECURVING TO THE EAST
OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION MAY
OCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND
MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE PHILIPPE HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...THERE WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THAT TIME...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 24
HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND BE
COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON PHILIPPE
MAINTAINING GALE TO STORM INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.4N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 27.4N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.3N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 37.0N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN