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| #464439 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 06.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011 AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN EYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION OF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND CONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. AROUND 48 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS EARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A TRANSITION. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.8N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 28.6N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 29.6N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.0N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 45.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH |
