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| #464514 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 06.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN RECENT HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE T4.5 AT 0000 UTC AND THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE WAS 4.8. USING THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT. PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS PATH. AFTER 36 HOURS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM AND RECEIVE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. POST- TROPICAL PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL GALE/STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OUT TO ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE HEADING HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 050/10. THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD GIVE THE CYCLONE A KICK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. AFTER PHILIPPE MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE...THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BRIEFLY DECELERATE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A JUST-RECEIVED 0042 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.1N 58.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.9N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 31.1N 53.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 37.3N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 42.0N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 47.9N 38.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 58.0N 30.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
