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| #464521 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 07.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER. PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST- TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 29.6N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 36.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 40.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 61.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
