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| #46468 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 17.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. RECON MEASURED AT 06Z A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS AS STRONG AS 63 KT...WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. DROPSONDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEASURED ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE ABOUT 120 N MI FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THE RECON DATA...THE WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 50 KT. THE INCREASING RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN ON SATELLITE... WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...ARE INDICATIONS THAT OPHELIA WILL SOON BE EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...IT COULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...040/18. OPHELIA IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BEND IN THE PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE... AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 39.5N 70.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 42.1N 67.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 18/0600Z 45.4N 62.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 56.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/0600Z 49.6N 49.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0600Z 62.5N 7.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
