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| #464730 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 07.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60 KT. CONTINUED HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS WHEN IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/14. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT APPROACHES PHILIPPE. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON A 0022 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 30.7N 52.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.7N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 36.6N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 40.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 43.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 50.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 58.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
