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| #464794 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 08.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990 MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.1N 50.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 33.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 37.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 41.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 58.0N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
