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| #46515 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 17.Sep.2005) TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
